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seller
Calculating Your Asking Price
Sales Dropped last month …
On December 22nd 2015, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their latest Existing Home Sales Report which covered sales in November. The report revealed that sales:
“…fell 10.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million in November (lowest since April 2014 at 4.75 million)…”
That revelation gave birth to a series of industry articles, some of which quoted pundits questioning whether the housing market was slowing. In actuality, there is one rather simple explanation to much of the falloff in sales last month. It is likely the implementation of the “Know Before You Owe” mortgage rule, commonly known as the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule, which went into effect on October 3. These regulations caused house closings to be delayed by an extra three days in November as shown in the graph below.
Three days might sound like a minimal difference. However, since there are only approximately 20 days in a month that a closing would normally take place (Mondays through Fridays), losing three days constitutes well over 10% of all closings. These sales are not lost. They are just moved into the next month’s numbers. In a DS News article on the subject also posted on December 22nd, Auction.com EVP Rick Sharga explained:
“The most likely cause for the weak sales numbers is a delay in processing loans due to the new TRID mortgage requirements imposed by the CFPB. This is the biggest change in mortgage document processing in many years, and there have been numerous reports within the industry of problems implementing the process and the new documentation that comes with it.”
So how is the housing market actually doing?
A better way to look at how well the housing market is doing is to look at the Foot Traffic Report from NAR which quantifies the number of prospective buyers that are actively looking for a home at the current time:
We can see immediately that demand to buy single family homes is increasing over the last few months – not decreasing.
Bottom Line
No matter what last month’s sales numbers show, the housing market is still doing well as demand remains strong.
Call 786.554.8063 or email us George@GeorgeAssal.com, WE are here to facilitate and help you during the process of buying, selling, or renting any real estate needs, which will result in reaching your financial goals quickly and with ease, visit our page www.GeorgeAssal.com .
There is NO Housing Bubble – Most Experts Agree.
There is no doubt that home prices in the vast majority of housing markets across the country are continuing to increase on a month over month basis. The following map (based on data from the latest CoreLogic pricing report) reveals the appreciation level by state:
These increases in value have caused some to be concerned about a new price bubble forming in residential real estate. Here are quotes from many of the most respected voices in the housing industry regarding the issue:
Nick Timiraos, reporter at the Wall Street Journal:
“Predictions of a new national home price bubble look unfounded for now, according to data.”
Michael Fratantoni, Chief Economist, the Mortgage Bankers Association:
“I don’t really see it as a bubble.”
Jack M. Guttentag, Professor of Finance Emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania:
“My view is that we are a long way from another house price bubble.”
Rajeev Dhawan, Director of Economic Forecasting Center at J. Mack Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University:
“To have a bubble, you need to have construction rates higher than the perceived demand, which is what happened in 2003 to 2007. Right now, however, we have the reverse of that.”
Victor Calanog, Chief Economist, Reis:
“The housing market has yet to show evidence of systematic runaway asset price inflation characterized by home prices rising much faster than household income.”
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones:
“I would describe this as a rebound in home prices, not a bubble and not a reason to be fearful.”
Andrew Nelson, US Chief Economist, Colliers International:
“I don’t think there is a housing bubble.”
George Raitu, Director, Quantitative & Commercial Research, NAR:
“We do not consider the current market conditions to present a bubble.”
Christopher Thornberg, Founding Partner, Beacon Economics:
“The housing market is far from overheated.”
So why have prices been increasing?
Today, there is a gap between supply (number of houses on the market) and demand (the number of buyers looking for a new home). In any market, this would cause values to increase. Here are some experts’ comments on this issue:
Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com Chief Economist:
“So does that mean we’re in a bubble? Nope, that’s just what happens when demand increases faster than supply.”
Robert Bach, Director of Research – Americas, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank:
“I don’t think the housing market is overheated based on demand and supply fundamentals.”
Mark Dotzour, Chief Economist, Real Estate Center, Texas A&M University:
“We are not in a housing bubble. We are in a situation where demand for houses is much higher than supply.”
Calvin Schnure, SVP of Research & Economic Analysis, NAREIT:
“Given all the demand and little supply the residential market is FAR from overheated.”
Bottom Line
Currently, there is an imbalance between supply and demand for housing. This has created a natural increase in values not a bubble in prices. Don’t let the imbalance bubble to get you, CALL us today 786.554.8063 or email us at George@GeorgeAssal.com, you know you can count on our help every step of the way while reaching your goal faster, easier and with a smile on your face.
Selling Your Home? Price It Right From the Start!
In today’s market, where demand is outpacing supply in many regions of the country, pricing a house is one of the biggest challenges real estate professionals face. Sellers often want to price their home higher than recommended, and many agents go along with the idea to keep their customers happy. However, we realized that telling the homeowner the truth is more important than getting the seller(s) to like us.
There is no “later.”
Sellers sometimes think, “If the home doesn’t sell for this price, I can always lower it later.” However, research proves that homes that experience a listing price reduction sit on the market longer, ultimately selling for less than similar homes.
John Knight, recipient of the University Distinguished Faculty Award from the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the Pacific, actually did research on the cost (in both time and money) to a seller who priced high at the beginning and then lowered the their price. In his article, Listing Price, Time on Market and Ultimate Selling Price published in Real Estate Economics revealed:
“Homes that underwent a price revision sold for less, and the greater the revision, the lower the selling price. Also, the longer the home remains on the market, the lower its ultimate selling price.”
Additionally, the “I’ll lower the price later” approach can paint a negative image in buyers’ minds. Each time a price reduction occurs, buyers can naturally think, “Something must be wrong with that house.” Then when a buyer does make an offer, they low-ball the price because they see the seller as “highly motivated.” Pricing it right from the start eliminates these challenges.
Don’t build “negotiation room” into the price.
Many sellers say that they want to price their home high in order to have “negotiation room.” But, what this actually does is lower the number of potential buyers that see the house. And we know that limiting demand like this will negatively impact the sales price of the house.
Not sure about this? Think of it this way: when a buyer is looking for a home online (as they are doing more and more often), they put in their desired price range. If seller is looking to sell their house for $400,000, but lists it at $425,000 to build in “negotiation room,” any potential buyers that search in the $350k-$400k range won’t even know your listing is available, let alone come see it!
One great way to see this is with the chart below. The higher you price your home over its market value, the less potential buyers will actually see your home when searching.
A better strategy would be to price it properly from the beginning and bring in multiple offers. This forces these buyers to compete against each other for the “right” to purchase your house.
Look at it this way: if you only receive one offer, you are set up in an adversarial position against the prospective buyer. If, however, you have multiple offers, you have two or more buyers fighting to please you. Which will result in a better selling situation?
The Price is Right
Great pricing comes down to truly understanding the real estate dynamics in your neighborhood. Our team will take the time to simply and effectively explain what is happening in the housing market and how it applies to your home.
Our team will tell you what you need to know rather than what you want to hear. This will put you in the best possible position.
Thinking of selling your home and not sure how to price it right? Call us, We at the ASSAL team want to make sure you price your home right while reaching your goal faster, easier and with a smile on your face! Give us a call today at 786.554.8063 or send us an email at george@georgeassal.com– you can count on our help every step of the way.
What is a Housing Bubble? Is One Forming?
The recent talk of Greece and its financial challenges has some questioning whether the U.S. could also return to the crisis we experienced in 2008. Some are looking at the rise in real estate values and wondering whether we are in the middle of another housing price bubble.
What actually is a price bubble?
Here is the definition according to Jack M. Guttentag, Professor of Finance Emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania:
“A price bubble is a rise in price based on the expectation that the price will rise. Sooner or later something happens to erode confidence in continued price increases, at which point the bubble bursts and prices drop. What makes it a price bubble is that the cause of the price increase is an expectation that the price will increase, which sooner or later must reverse itself.”
Does Professor Guttentag believe we are in another housing bubble?
In a recent article, he explained:
“My view is that we are a long way from another house price bubble. Home buyers, lenders, investors and regulators now understand that a nationwide decline in house prices is possible — because we recently lived through one.”
What are home prices doing?
Though home values are continuing to appreciate, the acceleration of the increases has slowed to year-over-year numbers which reflect a healthy housing market. Here is a chart showing year-over-year appreciation since January of last year:
We can see that appreciation rates have dropped from double digit numbers to more normal rates of 5% or lower.
Bottom Line
We think Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal put it best in a recent tweet:
“Predictions of a new national home price bubble look unfounded for now, according to data.”
Interested in selling your home or looking to buy one, give us a call today at 786.554.8063 or send us an email at george@georgeassal.com. We will look forward to hearing from you!
For Sellers – Two Graphs That Scream List Your House Today
The spring and summer months have always been known as a very popular time for homebuyers to start the search for their dream home. This year is no different!
We all learned in school that when selling anything, you will get the most money if the demand for that item is high and the inventory of that item is low. It is the well-known Theory of Supply & Demand.
If you are thinking of selling your home, here are two graphs that strongly suggest that the time is now. Here is why…
DEMAND
According to research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), buyer activity this year has far outpaced the same months in 2014. Purchasers who are ready, willing and able to buy are in the market at great numbers.
SUPPLY
The most recent Existing Home Sales Report from NAR revealed that the current supply of housing inventory is at a 5.1 month supply, which remains below the 6-months necessary for a normal market.
Bottom Line
Listing your house for sale when demand is high and supply is low will guarantee the offers made will truly reflect the true value of your property. Interested in selling your home or looking to buy one, give us a call today at 786.554.8063 or send us an email at george@georgeassal.com. We will look forward to hearing from you!
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The ASSAL Team 